Taking bets on the election timing, updated

While the Island is preoccupied with the small matter of the America’s Cup, not to mention the Tall Ships, there is another important issue that will soon need addressing.

When will the next General Election be called?

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Originally I had placed my bets on September. The feel good factor from the AC would still be in play and people would be feeling refreshed after vacations and Cup Match.

Then the Lahy lawsuit, the Port Royal lawsuit and the December 2 related court appearances all happened in pretty quick succession.

A lawsuit in the US can drag on for years, the court system here is not the quickest and with the defendants all electing for trial either at the Supreme Court or Magistrates’ Court, that could drag on for months.

Who knows how speedily the Port Royal issue will be dealt with or how public it could become.

The point is, they are all going to form a steady drip feed of very bad publicity for the OBA which the PLP and unions will feed off, justifiably so in terms of winning an election.

Will the AC, work on the airport and the ground breaking on the St Regis hotel be enough to counter balance that negative publicity? What else is there that could derail the OBA and prove a bonus to the PLP?

I noticed that the job figures three years ago were released in April, then it was May and then it was June. Will it be July this year?

They are going to be pretty important if the OBA has a chance of salvaging its 2,000 jobs pledge and will be very important to the PLP to show, perhaps, that Government has not hits its targets.

So my guess for an election? February 2017, just about the latest it can be called.

Anyone want a (small) wager?

UPDATE

Someone just emailed me this:

It didn’t work for Pam Gordon and it didn’t work for Paula Cox i.e. it never gets better, no matter how bad it might seem. Another factor as well is how the OBA Government ‘manages’ the House in the next session now that they are a minority. There may be no appetite to returning to that in November after the summer recess.   

 

 

 

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